By Timothy Long

Or are we just not drinking enough beer?

Last month, the New York Times published an article titled “Has the Craft Beer Industry’s Keg Finally Kicked?” A cute and cheeky headline, but it wasn’t original. I’ve been seeing similar headlines for about a year or so now. Mainly because people send them to me in emails with “Tim, craft beer is dead!” in the subject line. I’m sure that most of you have seen the headlines as well.  These articles are the result of the closure of some well-known breweries, most notably Anchor Steam, and the closing of many small local breweries as well.

The New York Times article seized on the fact that in 2024, for the first time since the craft beer trend began, more craft breweries closed than opened. This is the truth. There’s no fake news here. The Brewer’s Association reported that in 2024, there were 399 brewery closings, and that there were only 335 brewery openings. The trend is over. It’s time for a new fad. Seltzers, non-alcoholic drinks, and craft cocktails now rule the day. The craft beer industry has crashed and burned. Or has it?

To answer this question, we first need to step out of the world of beer and into the world of publishing. Ask yourself, what is the purpose of the headline? Everyone knows the answer, but few of us ever think about it. It’s simple, the purpose of a headline is to grab your attention. It’s to get you to read the article or click the link. Either way the reasoning is the same. It’s an attention grabber. And this is where Betteridge’s Law of Headlines comes into play. This adage states: “Any headline that ends in a question mark can be answered by one word, no.”

According to the LinkedIn Article “The Only Headline Rule You Should Follow”, it’s named after a British technology writer, Ian Betteridge. Many publishers use questions in headlines when they should use assertions. Why? To grab your attention! Questions make much better click bait. The article gives a great example.

Clickbait: “Can This Miracle Cream Erase Wrinkles Overnight?”

Authentic: “Discover the Science Behind Our Wrinkle-Fighting Formula”

Which one would you click on?

So, the answer to the New York Times headline is no. And the answer to the title of this article is no. They’re both clickbait. And the fact that you are reading this article proves that clickbait works. Gotcha!

So, what is happening in the craft beer industry? Here are some thoughts.

The craft beer industry grew at an enormous rate in the last ten years. And that growth rate began to decline in 2023.  Why? Are people getting sick of craft beer? We all know that the answer to that question is no. So, what has happened? The market became over saturated. We have a free market economy. People open new businesses all the time. For the last twenty years, opening breweries has been sexy. Everyone wanted to be in on the act. It was a big fad, a cool thing to do. It actually still is. The simple fact is that we ended up with more breweries than the market could support. The craft beer industry isn’t crashing, it’s correcting itself. As Vinepair.com stated in their article “Craft Brewing’s ‘Painful Period of Rationalization’ Is Here. Finally.”

“With respect to all the breweries that went out of business last year: This is fine. This had to happen. Frankly, it should’ve happened already. The bubble hasn’t burst, craft beer isn’t dead. The American craft brewing industry’s closure rate was an ahistorical monkey on its back, and now it’s gone. I’d even venture so far as to say it’s probably for the best.”

I agree, it’s probably for the best. We’ll end up with better beer.

This period of contraction was coming. The industry is not dead. Competition is thinning the herd, like it’s supposed to do. That’s how our economy works. Here’s another point from the article.

“Here’s the thing to remember as you zoom out on the individual brewery closures and try to decipher what it means for the industry that remains. The craft brewing boom that started in the late aughts and continued through most of last decade was never going to last. The country went from around 1,500 breweries in 2010 to around 9,500 in 2020, an astonishing uptick well north of 500 percent.” 

Very few retail industries could grow at that rate and maintain all of their individual businesses. Things just don’t work that way. And the craft beer industry’s closure rate is still well below the restaurant closure rate. And I don’t see the restaurant industry going away anytime soon.

So, let’s not fret. Our craft breweries are going to be there for us for a long time. Go visit one and have a good time. Enjoy the fun and lively atmosphere they provide. And when someone tries to tell you that they saw a headline that said that the industry is dying, just throw Betteridge’s Law in their face. You may come off as pedantic, but who cares. You’ll be giving them a life lesson.

I also have a homework assignment for you for next month. Your assignment is to visit at least two breweries and try one of their stouts. February is a cold month and perfect for stout beer. And try to make them two different kinds of stouts. This will properly prepare you for March’s article. Slainte!!

Tim’s Whiskey and Cigar Recommendations

Knob Creek 12-Year-Old Bourbon

I love the Knob Creek 9 Year Small Batch. So, I thought that this bourbon would be similar. To my surprise, it’s not at all. It’s a completely different bourbon. And surprisingly, it’s made with younger bourbon and at a lower proof. This whiskey is lovely. I’ve unintentionally passed on it for years, favoring the 9 year and the 15 year. Caramel and vanilla are the stars of the show. The nose is rich with both, plus cherry, oak, and chocolate. You get more oak on the palate with the first taste. Then comes cinnamon, cherry, and of course, caramel and vanilla. This whiskey has all the classic bourbon notes and finishes very smoothly. At $60 a bottle and 100 proof, it’s well worth the price.

La Aroma De Cuba El Jefe

This beautiful Churchill is a mild to medium cigar with a 90-point rating from Cigar Aficionado. This smoke is smooth and creamy. It’s been described as being a” big and beefy” cigar with a rich flavor profile without being overly strong. If you like a mild smoke, this cigar is for you. With notes of cedar, vanilla, and subtle spices, it’ll blend perfectly with the Knob Creek 12 Year bourbon. Enjoy.

 This cigar, and many other fine cigars, are available at John Crouch Tobacconist at 215 King St. in Old Town Alexandria. Mention this article and get 10% off the purchase of this month’s recommended cigar.

About the Author: Timothy Long is an educator, writer, consultant, and experienced restaurant operator. Email: tlong@belmarinnovations.com. Instagram and Twitter: @wvutimmy. Blog: What is that fly doing in my soup? http://whatflyinmysoup.com.